We needs a Snopes or fact check for this.

Its really an apocalypse for small to medium size stores. The big stores stores skew the numbers. The are 10,000 Walmarts and Sams Clubs in the US. At 100,000sf each (and that's low average) you quickly get to a billion square feet of retail space. Add 40,000 supermarkets at 40,000sf average and that's another 1,600,000,000 sf of retail space. Then throw in the other large retailers and wholesale clubs and the small stores become a statistical flea on the elephant.

The actual number of small store closings this year will be closer to 12,000 (UBS). There were 8,000 last year.

Ask any one in leasing and it is very apparent that demand is off (a lot). I was helping a friend negotiate option periods for the 100 or so drug stores he has. As the leases come due the drug stores don't exercise the option with the rent going up. In fact they insist that their rent to be cut. Usually by 50%. They know their is no alternative credit worthy small store replacements.

Ask any mall why their value dropped 50% or more in the last ten years. To keep small tenants they need rent reductions or the right to be on month-to-month leases. Month-to-month leases rarely carry any value with appraisers. Mall anchors always paid little or no rent.

I belong to the International Council of Shopping Centers and have for more than 30 years. The annual national convention used to draw 60,000-70,000 people. Its now down to 30,000 or so and dropping each year with very few retailers in attendance.

There are retail hot spots. Certain urban centers. But leave the urban center and rents drop precipitously. Leave Greater Burlington for example the rents drop by half before you reach the county line.

For the centers I own the small store rents are about half of what they were before the great recession.

So retail apocalypse, not so much. Small retailers closing up shop and paying lower rent is the problem. One of the results I fear is that the remaining larger retailers are monolithic and rarely locate in urban centers.
> On September 27, 2019 at 1:23 PM Dan Albrecht <dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org> wrote:
>
>
> Interesting article
>
>
>
> Dan Albrecht, MA, MS
>
> CCRPC Senior Planner
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> (802) 846-4490 ext. *29
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>
> From: Public Square: A CNU Journal <communications@cnu.org>
> Sent: Friday, September 27, 2019 11:05 AM
> To: Dan Albrecht <dalbrecht@ccrpcvt.org>
> Subject: The ‘retail apocalypse’ is a myth, and that's good news for downtowns
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The ‘retail apocalypse’ is a myth, and that's good news for the shopping industry and downtowns
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> SHARON WOODS
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> A Google search for the so-called "retail apocalypse" generates more than 13 million results, but brick-and-mortar retail is growing. The data presents a more confident picture for urban and town planners, developers, investors, and merchants. Read more >>
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