Comments interspersed.

On 26/7/23 02:53, Jeffrey Schwartz - schwartz.jeffrey at gmail.com (via
tml list) wrote:
> There's a good chance contemporary AI's going to cause all manner of
> social change in the next decade.
> I'm going to gloss over that as an avoidance of
> accidentally triggering a contemporary politics firestorm....

Are you conflating the current crop of large language models with
artificial _general_ intelligence?  (For an example of general
intelligence, I refer you to your nearest mirror).

> ...
> But let's suppose there's 'tech thresholds' where Machine Brains get a
> big bump. From mechanical looms, to sorting punched cards, to
> mainframes to networked smaller machines and home computing and then
> ubiquitous computing.
>
> T5 says there's another jump in computing at TL13...
For purposes of your argument, when the first AGIs land?
>
> What happens when more and more core worlds cross that threshold?
> Suddenly you can put a swarm of smart drones out in the belts, and
> your import needs plummet.
> The economic ripples of tech increase could be enough to set off a
> nightmare, and then a Long Night for many worlds which didn't have
> such things

Oooh, I like this....

After the wheels fall off, would the systems that got to TL13+ end up
becoming autarkies at TL13?

On other had, wouldn't comparative advantage still apply, even among the
leapfrog systems?  Eg Arglebargle (seat of Marquis B. Cameron) managing
to squeak through to an early TL14

>
> On Sun, Jul 23, 2023 at 2:06 PM Richard Aiken - raikenclw at gmail.com
> <http://gmail.com> (via tml list) <xxxxxx@simplelists.com> wrote:
>
>     Oh, the luxury of hindsight!
>
>     If only the current furore over emergent AI could have happened
>     back then. No need for Virus! Just ordinary runaway
>     development...with Vland Sector nodding sagely with an "We told
>     you so" smirk. 😇
>
>     On Sun, Jul 23, 2023, 12:42 PM Jeffrey Schwartz - schwartz.jeffrey
>     at gmail.com <http://gmail.com> (via tml list)
>     <xxxxxx@simplelists.com> wrote:
>
>         I played and ran a little Hard Times.
>         It was an interesting setting, and in some ways kinda Firefly-ish
>
Don't think I ever clapped eyes on Hard Times, but from what others have
said, sounds interesting without the post-apocalyptic gubbins. Ending
with a whimper, not a bang.
>
>
>         And it could very easily have led to another Long Night
>         without Virus being in the mix. I mean, the first Long Night
>         didn't need psychic space chips.
>
Even though they were there, on Milford's RestCymbeline for round 1. 
Need to figure out what Paradise Found (where Curly nicked Hammer's
pants for the final time) ended up called in OTL.
>
>
>         Doing the Carmel writing I've been fiddling with, part of me
>         wants to run an 1120 to 1150 milleau, where Virus is way over
>         on the other side of Deneb sector and Quarantine is working,
>         but the players are trying to keep things going within about 5
>         parsecs of home. Trying to keep trade working and deal with
>         Vargr corsairs and shady humans in the systems where things
>         are falling apart
>
>
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