Rupert,

Good point, and thanks for pulling me up on it.

I'll first start with pure-play answers - assuming the aging GTL stays
constant over time.

TL6 - median age at death 68 years (95th percentile 67-68 years)

TL7 - median age at death 70.5 years (95th percentile 70-70.5 years)

TL8 - median age at death 72.0 years (95th percentile 72-72.5 years)

Per G4: High Tech, TL6 landed approx 1880, TL7 landed approx 1940, and
TL8 approx 1980.  I'll add TL9 in 2050 to (attempt to) bolt OTL onto at
least one ISWTL (this probably makes the conclusions for those aging
after 2050 the shakiest).

Born 1880 - median age at death 69 years (95th percentile 68-69 years)

Born 1890 - median age at death 72.5 years (95th percentile 72.5 - 73.0
years)

Born 1940 - median age at death 79.5 years (95th percentile 79.0 - 80.0
years)

Born 1950 - median age at death 79.0 years (95th percentile 78.0 - 79.5
years)

Born 1980 - median age at death 83.5 years (95th percentile 82.5 - 85.0
years)

Born 1990 - median age at death 90.25 years (95th percentile 89.0 - 91.0
years)

As G4's aging model does not include infant/child mortality nor sex
differences, I'm not sure if these figures are directly comparable to
life expectancy at birth.

Frinstance (from
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/xxxxxx@.nsf/0/3CE0381F7CBAB608CA2569DE0024ED6D
, looking at Australia):

"A male child born at the beginning of the 20th century (1901-1910) had
a life expectancy at birth of 55.2 years and one born at the end
(1995-1997) of 75.7 years. For females the figures were 58.8 and 81.4
years respectively. At age 5 years the life expectancy was 57.9 years
for males and 60.8 years for females in 1901 and 71.3 and 76.9 years
respectively in 1995-97."

Going to the 2003 AU life tables
(https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/xxxxxx@.nsf/DetailsPage/3302.0.55.0012003?OpenDocument
), 50 year old men could expect to live another 30.4 years, while 50
year old women could expect another 34.4 years - 80.4 and 84.4 years,
respectively.  That's fairly close to my simulated 1950-born cohort
above, and some of the difference could be explained by me using the
median and the ABS using the mean.

So, to answer your question:

Pureplay TL7 Terrans can expect to die of old age after 70.5 years,
while their TL8 counterparts can expect 72 years.

Under the timeline I used above, someone born in 1950 could expect to
die of old age after 79 years, while according to the ABS data I found,
they could expect to die of old age between 80.5 years (men) and 84.5
years (women).

Alex

On 29/1/23 09:19, Rupert Boleyn - rupert.boleyn at gmail.com (via tml
list) wrote:
>
>
> On 29Jan2023 0911, Alex Goodwin - alex.goodwin at multitel.com.au (via
> tml list) wrote:
>>
>>
>> What have I missed and/or goofed?
> As far as I can see your logic is good. Whether GURPS' aging rules are
> a good simulation is another matter. How long do normal Terrans live,
> on average at  GTL7 or GTL8 according to GURPS?
>
--