Hello Alex,

My eyes got crossed and my brain went into reset mode. Even though you are way over my head good work.

Tom Rux

> On 01/28/2023 12:11 PM Alex Goodwin - alex.goodwin at multitel.com.au (via tml list) <xxxxxx@simplelists.com> wrote:
>
>
> I was amusing myself with some brute-force-over-underpants simulation of
> ISW-era life expectancies (assuming only old age as significant cause of
> death), and I wasn't quite expecting what fell out.
>
> I've tripped over my own latent errors enough times before, so I'd
> appreciate some help in making sure I haven't outsmarted myself.
>
>
> The (admittedly very crude) Python I wrote is available on request, or I
> can post it in a gist or the like.
>
>
> Some bits that caused the WTF:
>
> - Baseline late-Ziru Sirka-brand Vilani have a median life expectancy
> (from simulation) of 145 years (95% confidence interval 144 - 146 years).
>
>
> - A Nuskan born in 2090 AD, following the canonical timeline, could
> reasonably expect to live to see the rise of the Second Imperium (229
> years later).
>
> Median life expectancy (from simulation) is approx 263 years (95%
> confidence interval 257 - 271 years).
>
>
> - A (different, and ethnically-Vilani) Nuskan from a bloodline noted for
> longevity, born in 2319 AD (aforementioned rise) has a decent but less
> than 50% chance of living to see Twilight fall (428 years after founding
> of 2I).
>
> Median life expectancy (from simulation) is approx 406 years (95%
> confidence interval 393 - 426 years).
>
>
> What would the consequences be for Nusku's population (c 3 billion when
> the TC moved in during 2162-3) over the next couple of centuries?
>
>
> A little mechanical background that went into those sims (rolling aging
> for 900 characters for each set of circumstances):
>
> As I'm using GURPS 4th ed, the basic task roll is rolling 3d6 and aiming
> to get no more than a target number to succeed.  (ie, lower is better).
>
> Natural 3 and 4 are always critical successes, natural 18 is always
> critical failure.
>
> Natural 17 is a critical failure if your target number is less than 16,
> normal failure otherwise.
>
> Rolling at least 10 higher than your target number is a critical failure.
>
> Natural 5 is a critical success if your target number is 15+.
>
> Natural 6 is a critical success if your target number is 16+.
>
> If you've got this far, rolling above your target number is a regular
> failure.  Equal or below your target number is a regular success.
>
>
> Each simulated person was J Random - all four attributes were 10, no
> modifiers to aging roll beyond the medical GTL.
>
> When time catches up to a character and they need to make an aging roll:
>
> For each target attribute, in the following order: ST, DX, IQ, HT:
>
>      Roll the character's HT attribute, with the following mods:
>
>          + (medical GTL - 3)
>
>          +1/+2 if Fit / Very Fit
>
>          -1/-2 if Unfit / Very Unfit
>
>      Critical or regular success leaves the target attribute unchanged.
>
>      Regular (critical) failure reduces the target attribute by 1 (2).
>
>      If an attribute is decreased below 1 by aging, the character has
> keeled over from old age.
>
>      Characters with the Longevity advantage treat regular failures on
> aging rolls as regular successes, and critical failures on those rolls
> as regular ones.
>
>
> Ziru Sirka aging GTL was 7 throughout the ISW.
>
> United Nations/Terran Confederation aging GTL was 9 up until 2128 AD, 10
> up until 2235 AD, and 11 thereafter.
>
> Nusku's aging GTL was 7 until 2163 AD, then followed Terran
> Confederation progression thereafter.
>
>
> Plain old Terrans (for visual reference, check your nearest reflective
> surface or take a selfie) make their first aging roll at age 50, then
> annually until age 70 (inclusive), every 6 months until age 90
> (inclusive), and every 3 months thereafter.
>
> Vilani and early-generation Terrani hybrids double those thresholds and
> gaps - first at 100, then every 2 years until 140, yearly until 180, and
> every 6 months thereafter.
>
> For ease of implementation, I worked first in "number of aging rolls
> until J. Random Poorsod keels over" , then converted that _back_ to an
> age of death.
>
> If I haven't borked it, those aging thresholds work out to:
>
> 1st threshold - 1 aging roll
>
> 2nd threshold - 21 aging rolls
>
> 3rd threshold - 61 aging rolls
>
> Inside the thresholds, I linearly interpolated age and rounded down.
>
> Beyond the third threshold, age A backed out from # of aging rolls, R, as:
>
> A = 180 + 0.5 * (R - 61)
>
> I also went the other way to convert aging GTL changes to # of aging
> rolls _for a given character_, which then fed into the aging rolls
> themselves.
>
> Frinstance, for the above 2090-born Nuskan, they had three medical GTLs
> to worry about:
>
> 2090: GTL 7
>
> 2163: GTL 10
>
> 2235: GTL 11
>
> Now reference those off the character's age:
>
> 0: GTL 7
>
> 73: GTL 10
>
> 145: GTL 11
>
> As aging doesn't start until 100 (for Vilani), we can ignore the GTL 7 bitz:
>
> 100: GTL 10
>
> 145: GTL 11
>
> Finally, converting those to # of aging rolls:
>
> 1: GTL 10
>
> 21: GTL 10 (age 140 - added for reader reference)
>
> 26: GTL 11 (age 145)
>
> Thus, that particular character's 1st thru 25th aging rolls, inclusive,
> used an aging GTL of 10, and the 26th and later rolls used GTL 11.
>
>
> What have I missed and/or goofed?
>
> Alex
>
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