Responses inserted below;

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On Sat, 8/23/14, Greg Chalik <xxxxxx@gmail.com> wrote:

 Subject: Re: [TML] expected ship traffic
 To: xxxxxx@simplelists.com
 Date: Saturday, August 23, 2014, 5:25 PM

 Greg:

 Length of trade though is not as significant.
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Phil:

Do you mean 'length of time that the trade line has been in operation' or the physical distance of the trade line?

My point was that, eventually, here on Earth, many places, that were dependant upon imported glass, eventually gained the ability to produce it domestically.
Now, how long does/did it take for that to happen?
I see the same process w/i the TU (incl the 3I) *unless* the demand is so low that domestic production never happened.
Hence there is quite a bit of interstellar trade but never a high enough volume to require MT's massive bulk haulers.
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 Greg:

 Are you are
 referring to the present day Murano manufacture? Would
 anyone even know what glass is several thousand years from
 now outside of archaeologists and art historians?
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Phil:

Well, the analogy would work better if specific individual products aren't specified.
(The 'glass' example was NOT introduced by me, BTW.)
My position is that once volume of a particular product reaches a certain 'tipping' point, then in-system production would supplant it.
And, that point would be low enough that MT's massive CIVILIAN bulk transports would not exist.
Now, that doesn't preclude giant MILITARY vessels of all kinds as they serve a completely different purpose than the civilian ones.
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 Greg:

 Ok, so moving
 people, and there was once and may be again such a trade,
 had to be moved as bio-cargo. And?
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Phil:

I have the impression that you may be thinking that I am referring to a sort of 'slave trade' but I am not.
I am referring to the periodic transfer of personnel & dependants (even whole households for the 'higher-ups'?) that any large military, governmental, or civilian organisation would routinely make.
This would require a large number of 'liner' type starships & since all the CT designs I've seen can also carry a small but significant amount of cargo, they would be transporting some cargo as along all those people.
Side Note: My father was a USAAF/USAF pilot & I grew up 'in' that system. Typically, every three years, my family was uprooted & shifted, lock, stock, & barrel, anywhere from 100's of miles to 1/2 was around the world. Every summer, cuz that was when there was no school, there was a massive flurry of activity at the airfield as families came and went. While the bulk of this was dome during the summer 'break' from school, it actually went on all year long, esp when dealing w/ personnel w/o dependents, or other considerations. (sometimes families were moved in the middle of the school year).
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 Greg:

 The size of the 'Trader' vessel is entirely relative
 to the cargo. Ever tried to deliver the hull of a combat
 cruiser elsewhere for the fitting of engines? Original
 engines 'melted' due to accident, so the
 'job' was delivery of salvage for a refit. There are
 not a lot of systems that can supply engines like that on
 short notice you know.
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Phil:

Military 'Jump Tugs' would satisfy that need if the hull were to be 'towed' to the nearest naval base/shipyard.
Alternatively, a military 'tender' capable of performing the repairs might be dispatched. (similar to the 'tenders' &, or the 'floating drydocks' the USN has used)
Note: I've never disputed the military's need for massive starships.
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 On 24 August 2014
 09:39, Phil Pugliese (via tml list) <xxxxxx@simplelists.com>
 wrote:

 I never said there would NOT be a significant amount of long
 distance trade.

 But it would never, just as it was NOT the case in the 17th
 C, be large enough to require the humongous bulk transports
 introduced w/ MT.

 As far as the glass produced in Venice goes;

 Did Venice hyper-specialize in glass production & import
 everything else?

 Also, didn't there come a time, remember the TU has been
 'trading' for thousands & thousands of year,
 when glass production eventually migrated to the places that
 once had to rely on imports from Venice?

 How long did that take?

 As a side note, it occurs to me that the one thing that
 can't be 'transferred' is people. People will
 have to be transported. I imagine the military, just as the
 US military does now, will be constantly moving people
 around.

 I recall that when GDW first published 'Merchant
 Prince'(CT), it was mentioned that they used a BASIC prg
 running on an Apple to help develop the system. I got them
 to send me a copy & ran it quite a bit.

 It indicated that there was a significant amount of civilian
 passenger traffic, even to-from less-important worlds.

 Also, the 'liner  could also carry a small amount of
 cargo which could make the difference 'tween making or
 losing money on some trips.

 Also, location come into play. For example, Rhylanor, in the
 'Marches, never sees FreeTraders as the nearest system
 is J2.

 Now, considering Rhylanors UWP, plus the fact that it
 endured a lengthy siege during the 3rdFW, it appears that it
 is largely self-sufficient.

 I can see a large amount of both civilian, military, &
 gov (it's a subsector cap) traffic, both cargo &
 passenger.

 Enough for starships larger than the various 'Traders?
 Definitely.

 Enough for the gigantic bulk freighters from MT? Not even
 remotely close.

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