Re: [TML] Cost(s) of equity in 3I
Rupert Boleyn 16 Jan 2022 11:34 UTC
On 16Jan2022 1807, Ian Whitchurch - ian.whitchurch at gmail.com (via tml
list) wrote:
> Really low.
>
> The Third Imperium is a very low growth economy, with mostly stagnant
> technology and a parasitic noble class.
>
> It's implied that most of the good opportunities are dominated by people
> who know people, and that internal security isn't particularly high (cf all
> those internal wars leading to planetary merc contracts around who gets to
> exploit the profitable exports).
>
> Additionally, any positive growth rate means the economy has grown far
> beyond what the 3I has ie assume a 1.5% growth rate and get the economy
> increasing by 4.4 times every century. So, 3 centuries of uninterrupted
> growth and you have an 3I thats about 85 times the GDP size it used to be.
>
> So. Yeah. I'd assume that the combination of the exceptionally hard money
> of the 3I, the lack of any sort of Development Bank for member worlds, the
> cost of keeping the nobility to the standard to which they have become
> accustomed and so on means you've got an Imperium where a 2% return is
> considered a sign of excess risk.
>
> Ian
I assume that some member worlds have healthy *local* growth, but that
there's no way of getting most of that off-world, so aside from
resulting in industrial worlds where everyone has all the junk consumer
items they could ever wish for it doesn't *do* anything useful. Probably
the end result is an over-cooked local economy and mass unemployment
with the unemployed consuming the surplus and bringing the local economy
back down to the Imperial norm. Note that Industrial and High Population
worlds are not considered the best worlds.
--
Rupert Boleyn <xxxxxx@gmail.com>