On 16Dec2021 0307, Alex Goodwin - alex.goodwin at multitel.com.au (via
tml list) wrote:
> Consider an organisation that needs a sufficiently large starship
> fleet (by number of hulls) that it decides to buy and/or build
> sufficient shipyard capacity to do the build in-house over a number of
> years.
>
> For some concrete discussion numbers, let's say 4k vessels of the same
> class at a base price of GCr 1 (or milieu equivalent) apiece.  For
> this discussion, mission, commercial vs military vs paramilitary,
> basing, etc are irrelevant.  Prototypes have been built and issues
> rumbled in testing have been resolved.  This is full-scale production.
>
> Will hull #4000 cost the same to build as hull #1?  More?  Less?
>
> Keep in mind, the _reason_ for vertical integration was to capture any
> benefits from large-scale production.
>
>
> From my comparatively-untutored viewpoint, it would seem the answer to
> the above question would be "less".  But how much?
>
> Possibly out of my own ignorance, I'd lean towards the reasonably well
> known "learning/experience curve" (T.P. Wright, 1936, etc - see
> https://web.archive.org/web/20120830021941/http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/learn.html
> for an example + calculator)) - namely, the observation that, ceteris
> fnordibus, unit prices fall by a certain, compounded, fraction with
> each doubling of overall volume.  For instance, with a 20% learning
> curve, the 4th unit of a run (2 doublings beyond the first) would cost
> 0.80 * 0.80 = 64% of the first unit's cost. Likewise, under a 10%
> curve, the 4th unit would cost 0.9 * 0.9 = 81% of the first unit's cost.
>
> Obvious question is obvious - assuming a learning-curve model is
> least-worst, what approximate learning curve rate would apply to
> serial starship production?
>
> Does progress down such a curve stall out at some level?  What things
> would act to reset curve progress?
>
>
> Second question - if this is a less-than-useful model, what would you
> suggest as a more useful model?
>
There's an obvious floor of the basic materials costs. I think it's fair
to assume that, unless the basic extraction and refining industries are
also being put in from scratch that they're about as efficient as
they're going to get, so once the profit margins have been pushed to
their minimum, material prices won't drop any further.

After a certain point your labour force isn't going to get noticeably
more efficient (assuming no further capital investment), if only because
there's a certain unavoidable turnover in workers. Their cost isn't
going to drop below a certain point either (if you pay them less than
the minimum they need for food and shelter you won't have any workers).
So there's definitely a minimum cost per ship, though how much lower
than the initial price and how fast it will be reached I can't say.

--
Rupert Boleyn <xxxxxx@gmail.com>