Hi Alex,

Are you taking off annual maintenance from the life support costs and adjusting loss of revenue? Also I predicted that the ship would only make 24 jumps a year and not 25 while still incurring life-support costs.

And the huge one is that I was an order of magnitude out on the monthly mortgage payments which means that you are right in that it takes off 8 months off the mortgage and not eight years ... I know! ... Huge mistake ...

Anyway 8 months is still MCr 1.74 ...

-----Original Message-----
From: xxxxxx@simplelists.com <xxxxxx@simplelists.com> On Behalf Of Alex Goodwin
Sent: 20 February 2021 07:36
To: xxxxxx@simplelists.com
Subject: Re: [TML] Biospheres and Boodle

On 20/2/21 6:21 am, xxxxxx@quibell.org.uk wrote:
> Not sure that mixing economic systems works (i.e. working out the mortgage in GT while paying life-support and cargo costs in MgT2).
I was digging out basic comparison gubbins from GT, since I knew I would need a risk-free rate to build up the overall weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
>
> Mortgages in MgT2 work a similar way as the rest of the Traveller i.e. you pay 1/240th of the purchase price for 12 months in every year for the next 40 years. Total cost of the ship is thus twice the build price. This works out at about a 1.8% return on the banks' investment. Or a 3.98% mortgage interest rate on repayment terms. MgT2 doesn't mention the deposit, which might be why the interest rate is lower.

Thanks for pointing out the disconnect.  In GT:FT, the monthly payments are the same (1/240th of purchase price) but the amount financed is lower (at most 80% of purchase price), which inflates the debt rate. Carrying the lower mortgage premium through drops the required return on equity to 6.96% pa and WACC to 4.58% pa.

The lack of a deposit requirement strikes me as more than a little weird
- as Heinlein said, "where money is, heart will be".  It's an effective tool (for the bank) to better align the borrower's interests with theirs, cheaply.  Ah well, Mongoose, ass, elbow.

>
> Life support in MgT2 costs Cr1,000 per stateroom (Cr3,000 in double occupancy), and Cr1,000 per person per week. So life support for two persons (Cr2,000) is covered.
>
> It takes a ton (lost cargo revenue) and costs Cr200,000 and 1 power point, or Cr66,666 and 0.065 tons fuel is 0.1 tons per month (Cr50 or Cr10) depending on which fuel is used.
>
> So Capex cost is Cr266,666 and 1.165 tons used. Or with the mortgage
> payments Cr533,332 (Capex and mortgage @ approx 3.98%) Cost to run is
> Cr24,000 over the lifetime of the ship in fuel Maintenance costs are
> Cr2,667 monthly or MCr 1.28 Lost revenues assuming that the ton can be
> filled for 24 jumps a year with freight @ 50% 1 parsec and 50% 2
> parsecs is MCr 1.248 Total costs over 40 years are MCr 3.085

Working off the pure-debt WACC of 3.98% pa, and monthly figures:

Marginal mortgage payment: (Cr1,112)

Marginal fuel burn: (Cr50)

Marginal maintenance: (Cr23)   (0.1% of purchase price pa, divided by 12)

Fixed marginal cost: (Cr1,185)

Life support savings: Cr2,000

Monthly cash saving: Cr815

Monthly revenue loss: (Cr2,600) given your figures - as you point out, will most likely be lower.

>
> Assuming the ship is crewed 46 weeks of the year (give or take) Opex
> saving over the lifetime of the ship (40 years) is MCr 3.84
>
> Which equates to Cr18,875 a year saving. And it's a real saving because you have to have the crew. You can't run the ship without them. They are a fixed cost, and the saving is against a variable loss of revenue (you can’t guarantee that you will fill that 1 ton every jump).
>
> Now instead of taking this as a saving if you used it to pay off your mortgage you would be paying just less than an extra months payment a year, which if you had a compound interest mortgage calculated daily you would reduce your mortgage from 40 years to about 32 years (based on a far trader in MgT2) which is an even bigger saving than just the offset opex ...
>
> Best regards,
>
> Ewan
>
My figures above give a cash saving of Cr9,780 annually. On a Type A2 Far Trader (p118, MGT2 High Guard), sticker price of MCr52.2405, with a monthly mortgage payment (also compounded monthly) of Cr217,684 over 40 years, the additional Cr815/mo shortens the loan term by just over 4 months.

Same ship, same mortgage, with your annual savings (converting to
Cr1,573 per month), I get the loan shortened by 8 and a half months. How come we get term changes that differ by an order of magnitude from the same inputs?

Alex
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