I was just listening to an infectious disease specialist out of Hawaii. He indicated many people in the states that are experiencing significant upticks (and there are a lot of them) are not wearing masks, are not worrying about social distancing. He indicated that it is possible if that continues, that the US will lose another 115K by September.
And that's before any possible second wave in the fall or a possible one again in the spring.
And it is still not clear if the vaccines are going to pan out for early 2021. And all of that assumes no mutation (though there have been some investigations and there is a possibility of an even more contagious version apparently).
Unlike SARS and MERS, the lengthy period of being asymptomatic and contagious was not the case with those and so they didn't spread in that asymptomatic period the same. With SARS and MERS, you started seeing symptoms, you then could isolate and pose less of a threat.
Lastly, if you look at the 1918-1919 influenza and how cities faired across the US based on public health precautions, the results were quite variable. Some had a modest uptick because they distanced and wore masks and washed hands, some had peak caseloads higher than the first spring/early summer peaks when they relaxed those (and did things like have parades and such).
Up north here, Scouts Canada has cancelled all meetings in person until the fall and even then it is questionable. The Shriners and Masons have also done similar. Our limit is 10 people at a gathering in Ontario (with I think exceptions for Weddings of Funerals) but even then you are required to maintain 2m spacing and wear a mask. Public transit requires masks now.
The biggest two factors for transmission are: Proximity and time. The longer you spend close to a carrier (including ones who have no idea or no symptoms) and the closer you get, the more the risk goes up.
The other thing that the stats on TV or in the media rarely discuss, but that is probably just as critical: Many folks who have caught Covid-19 and were not formally sick enough to go to a hospital to be admitted have found that 8-12 weeks later, they are still far below their initial level of health - various symptoms but fatigue, exhaustion, and various other impacts seem to carry on. One theory is this is tied to a very powerful immune response and *that* is part of the long lasting symptoms that debilitate people. And there's a fair risk of lung damage or other long term impacts too if you get this.
We (Canadians) are right next door to the US, and we have 1/10th the population, but 1/20th of the total case count roughly, and about 1/14th of the deaths, so the steps do make a difference. We have almost identical cultures, but there is much more a sense of individual autonomy and resistance to government advise here (from what I've observed over the last 50 years). We are more followers of what is suggested or directed. And otherwise, we have a lot of the same lifestyles. So the fact we've managed to have lower relative case counts and lower relative death rates seems to show that those advisings have merit.
And as most folks probably realize, the fabric mask is NOT for you. Those masks have little chance of slowing Sars-Cov-2 and protecting you if it is in the air (aeresolized) or coughed/sneezed and larger droplets get on you and you are breathing through a cloth mask. What the cloth mask will do is, if you are infected (and realize it or are asymptomatic and contagious) is they will catch the majority of exhaled, coughed or sneezed droplets which would otherwise become aerosolized or land on surfaces and can persist for days (hours in the air). You protect the other people in your communities who might be far more vulnerable than you are by wearing one. It is, as they say, not about you.
Now an N95 mask and face shield might be about you because those will tend to keep the virus away from entry passages of the face - eyes, tear ducts, nose, throat - and that only if you know how to handle possibly contaminated gear safely and your mask isn't a Chinese knock off that has about a 9 in 10 chance of not meeting N95 standards.
We've also seen up here that we are getting big spikes in 20-somethings getting the bug and more being hospitalized (it's the fastest growing demographic as we reopen slowly). The theory is most of them are ignoring social distancing and masking. I can believe it and I expect a similar mess when the younger kids try to go back to school in September.
I can't see any organization with good legal sense being willing to proceed to any form of mass gathering, especially in the US where lawsuits are far easier to launch than they are up here (our class action equivalents are much harder to declare).
I hate missing conventions (I missed the Ground Zero Games East Coast Convention in Owego, NY earlier this year and I've been travelling to the US for decades now to attend this small but amazing gathering). I hate more seeing folks die when it isn't necessary and a bunch more have lasting chronic damage when we could limit it with some changes in how we manage day to day life.