Date: Fri, 03 Mar 1995 10:59:28 -0500
From: Virginia Roy - Branch <virginia@FAXON.CA>
Subject: 1996 PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR CANADIAN LIBRARIES (fwd)

This message has been cross posted to the Faxon Canada Listserv. We
apologize for any duplication.

While there have already been many pricing forecasts presented, we
believe that this is the only one that deals exclusively with
the financial issues and factors affecting Canadian libraries.

PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS -- 1996 SUBSCRIPTION YEAR

Based on the latest information on the publisher price increases, world
economic conditions, and both current and projected values of the
Canadian dollar, Faxon Canada is projecting the following changes in
journal subscription prices for 1996 subscriptions. Please note that
these are preliminary projections based on current conditions and will
be revised as the year progresses.

             Page       Paper/    General   Cancel-   Currency  Total
           Inflation   Postage   Inflation  lations   Changes
______________________________________________________________________________
Cdn Titles     2.5%      3.0%      2.1%       2.5%      N/A      10.1%

US  Titles     2.5%      3.0%      2.5%       2.5%     (2.1%)     8.4%

Europ. Titles  3.0%      3.0%      2.0%       3.0%     (3.1%)     7.9%

Overall Increase                                                  8.4%

______________________________________________________________________________

(Based on a collection made up of 5% Canadian, 20% European and 75% U.S.
 materials.)

The increases detailed in each category above represent the net effect that
each component is expected to have on the final subscription price.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

PAGE INFLATION:  Even with tighter editorial standards, increased manuscript
submissions will result in more published pages again next year.

PAPER & POSTAGE: After several years of stability, paper prices have sky-
rocketed due to very limited inventories. Postal costs have also risen.

GENERAL INFLATION: Inflation in both Europe and the U.S. has been
accelerating and is expected to continue to rise at moderate levels.

CANCELLATIONS: Publishers continue to see increased subscription
cancellations and must therefore allocate increasing fixed costs over a
shrinking unit base.

CURRENCY: During 1994 the Canadian dollar weakened against European
currencies and fell over 8 cents against the U.S. dollar. Canada's deficit
problems and the political uncertainty in Quebec continue to hinder its
improvement. Expectations are that the dollar will gain strength later in
the year assuming a "No" vote in the Quebec referendum.

The movement of the Canadian dollar is potentially the most significant
factor in anticipating publisher price increases since a majority of
material purchased in Canada must be paid in a foreign currency.

SUMMARY: Expectations of a slightly stronger Canadian dollar lead to the
price projection of an 8.4% increase on a typical collection. The price
projection for your individual collection will vary based on the
proportion of non-Canadian content.

March 1995

Faxon Canada
P.O. Box 2382
London, Ontario
N6A 5A7
1-800-263-2966