Date:         Fri, 24 Jan 1992 08:50:00 -0500
From:         Bob Tannehill <RST65@CAS.ORG>

Relative to PREDICTIVE CHECK-IN:

We are in the process of creating the prediction records for over 9,000
serials received here at Chemical Abstracts Service.  We are predicting for
the TECHLIBplus system marketed by Information Dimensions, Inc.  We are
running the TLP software on a SUN SPARC 2e (UNIX) platform.

We are NOT inputing caption information as part of the prediction process,
but only the numeric/alpha enumeration and the chronological data.

The source of our data is our manual Kardex cards.  From these we can extract
enumeration/chronological data as well as historical receipt patterns.  The
TLP system has several basic predictive patterns (e.g., monthly, quarterly)
that can be customized to meet the receipt patterns of a particular title.
For example, if the real pattern for a monthly is periodic except for
combined issues in July and Sept, we can adjust those months to reflect that
pattern.

We are currently predicting at a rate of about 10 titles per hour.  We do not
have to "collect" the data as they are already in our manual check-in records.
As you can see, the process will take us 900-1,000 manhours.  We have assigned
two staff members to work full time on this during the week and we work
overtime with more staff on the weekends.  As of this week, we have 4,300
titles predicted.

Relative to Bob Persing's questions:  We are predicting for two years out, so
that we do not have to repeat all of this every year.  Further, as we obtain
claiming reports off of the system, we are adjusting prediction records to
be more precise.  Finally, we will probably "repredict" on an "as titles are
received" basis to spread some of the effort over the year.  We will also
be investigating methods of using software to "repredict"--we think that this
may be possible for a large percentage of the titles that are routine/straight
forward.  Caption information is separate from the prediction feature on this
system and is simple to make a change, as such are encountered.

If you have other questions, please let me know.  Bob Tannehill, Manager,
Library Services, CAS