> SUMMARY OF CRITIQUE: There is no evidence to date that
> Open Access (OA)
> self-archiving causes journal cancellations.

Nor is there any evidence to date that if Amazon were to begin giving
books away, library business would shift away from traditional book
vendors to Amazon.  That may be because the question would seem rather
silly to most rational people.

For what it's worth, I can tell you that if all of the content of a
journal to which my library subscribes were to become available
according to Green Road specifications (assuming that the articles are
posted immediately, permanently, and in a place where they can easily be
found), we would almost certainly cancel our subscription to that
journal immediately and replace it with a ToC service.  I don't claim to
be the smartest librarian around, but even I know better than to pay for
something that's available for free.

I can't speak for all of my colleagues, of course, and I freely admit
that this statement isn't based on research.  I'm quite confident,
however, that my library isn't alone in its hesitancy to give away money
for nothing.  This is not necessarily an argument against OA -- it is,
however, an argument against the patently silly notion that pervasive
and well-managed OA would have no effect on paid subscriptions.

----
Rick Anderson
Dir. of Resource Acquisition
University of Nevada, Reno Libraries
(775) 784-6500 x273
rickand@unr.edu