Following is the response I made to Steve's question off list but which
he asked me to post.

I am supplying the percentage of online-only institutional subscriptions
for the journals published by Portland Press (i.e. life science/medical
journals) between 2002 and 2006 (to date). The bulk of subscription
orders are still for the print/online combined rate.

2002 - 0.7%
2003 - 3.08%
2004 - 7.63%
2005 - 12.5%
2006 (to date) - 15.73%

We find the rate of shift to be disappointingly slow. For our field
online is the primary version of the journals and our users (we are part
of the Biochemical Society so we have feedback from our members as well
as subscribers and readers) say that they no longer look at the print
version of the journal. However this is not reflected in the pattern of
change by the libraries who are the purchasers of the material.

We have tried to accelerate the switch to online-only in recent years by
increasing the price differential between print/online and online-only
which is about 17% cheaper in 2006. We are quite proactive about telling
subscribers about the saving they could make. However we assume that it
is difficult to get libraries (or the subscription agents they use) to
change their ordering patterns, and it may be that the price of our
combined print/online subscription is still too attractive to switch. I
accept that librarians also have issues about perpetual access.

Incidentally I don't think that your institution subscribes to any of
our journals so I assume that you may not be a science based
institution. Patterns of change for non-science journals might be
different, possibly slower.

Regards

Adam Marshall
Director of Marketing and Customer Services
Portland Press
Commerce Way
Colchester
CO2 8HP, UK
Tel: +44 (0)1206 796351
Fax: +44 (0)1206 799331
E-mail: adam.marshall@portlandpress.com
www.portlandpress.com

-----Original Message-----
From: SERIALST: Serials in Libraries Discussion Forum
[mailto:SERIALST@LIST.UVM.EDU] On Behalf Of STEVE
BLACK@FACULTY@ACADEMICAFFAIRS
Sent: 07 March 2006 19:57
To: SERIALST@LIST.UVM.EDU
Subject: [SERIALST] rate of switch from print to online only

A committee at my college is currently in the process of envisioning our
library for the next 20 years. As part of this process, I'm working on
projecting shelving needs for periodicals.

I'll report 3 scenarios:
1. Needs if current print subscriptions are maintained for 20 years, 2.
Cuts & weeding that would be necessary to maintain zero growth, 3.
Shelving needs if subscriptions progressively move to online only.

Scenario 3 is the most likely course of action, but estimating the rate
of conversion to online only requires some crystal ball gazing. To that
end, I'm interested in the best guesses of SERIASTers on two points:

At what rate will your library cancel print subscriptions in lieu of
online only access?

What portion of your periodicals collection will still arrive in print
in 2026?

Please take it as a given that myriad uncertainties make the decisions
very complex, so answers are speculative. Therefore answers of "it
depends" shall be fined ten dollars, payable to the offender's favorite
charity ;).

Steve Black
Reference, Serials, and Instruction Librarian The College of Saint Rose
392 Western Avenue
Albany, NY 12203-1419
blacks@strose.edu
(518)458-5494