Hi, Steve!  I'll play this game:

At what rate will your library cancel print subscriptions in lieu of
online only access?
--As fast as possible

What portion of your periodicals collection will still arrive in print
in 2026?
--As close to 0% as possible

We are already down to about 2500 print subscriptions (which includes
print + online titles) out of 6,000 subscriptions (not including 13,000
unduplicated aggregator titles).  I'm hoping to continue chiseling out a
few hundred per year until we hit those titles that either:

--have no online-only option
--have online access with moving walls or publisher has no intention of
providing perpetual access

We may hit that point in just a few years.  We are already looking at
the single-title publishers for conversion.  (And the license agreements
that go with them).  We may end up with a base of 1000-1500 that we
can't convert at the end.

Carol Ann

Carol Ann Borchert, MLS, MA
Coordinator for Serials
University of South Florida Libraries
4202 E. Fowler Ave. LIB 122
Tampa, FL 33620-5400
(813) 974-3901
fax: (813) 974-2296
email: borchert@lib.usf.edu

-----Original Message-----
From: SERIALST: Serials in Libraries Discussion Forum
[mailto:SERIALST@LIST.UVM.EDU] On Behalf Of STEVE
BLACK@FACULTY@ACADEMICAFFAIRS
Sent: Tuesday, March 07, 2006 2:57 PM
To: SERIALST@LIST.UVM.EDU
Subject: [SERIALST] rate of switch from print to online only

A committee at my college is currently in the process of envisioning our
library for the next 20 years. As part of this process, I'm working on
projecting shelving needs for periodicals.

I'll report 3 scenarios:
1. Needs if current print subscriptions are maintained for 20 years, 2.
Cuts & weeding that would be necessary to maintain zero growth, 3.
Shelving needs if subscriptions progressively move to online only.

Scenario 3 is the most likely course of action, but estimating the rate
of conversion to online only requires some crystal ball gazing. To that
end, I'm interested in the best guesses of SERIASTers on two points:

At what rate will your library cancel print subscriptions in lieu of
online only access?

What portion of your periodicals collection will still arrive in print
in 2026?

Please take it as a given that myriad uncertainties make the decisions
very complex, so answers are speculative. Therefore answers of "it
depends" shall be fined ten dollars, payable to the offender's favorite
charity ;).

Steve Black
Reference, Serials, and Instruction Librarian The College of Saint Rose
392 Western Avenue
Albany, NY 12203-1419
blacks@strose.edu
(518)458-5494