The Mathematics Of ‘COVID19’ Testing
Written by Graeme McMillan
https://principia-scientific.com/the-mathematics-of-covid19-testing/
The Basic Arithmetic: As usual, I am writing about the SARS-CoV2 (SC2) numbers from a Scottish perspective but the general conclusions apply to any country.
It is quite apparent from pronouncements from the First Minister, Ms Sturgeon, that she has no idea what the numbers she is communicating to the general public actually mean.
The Daily Record journalists Chris McCall and Peter Davidson wrote the following nonsense: “Over the last 24 hours 47 new cases of the deadly virus were identified with no deaths since July 16.”
It is perhaps the noted failings of the Scottish education system (once regarded as one of the finest in the world) that a journalist could write such condescending drivel.
A deadly virus has not killed anyone in a month?
The 47 cases increased to 65 following Sturgeon’s usual cringe-worthy daily speech on the 14th August.
Tara Fitzpatrick of the same rag tells us that “The total number of cases of the virus now stands at 19,238 throughout the country.”
The first major problem is that there were 13,991 ‘tests’ given to identify these 65 ‘cases’. That’s a 0.46% rate of detection.
The second major problem is that there cannot possibly be 19,238 cases throughout the country.
Quite apart from the fact that nearly 5,000 of them have died (with COVID19 mentioned on the Death Certificate), the figure is a cumulative number of those who have tested ‘positive’ for SC2.
So when does a ‘COVID19 case’ cease to be a ‘case’?
The estimated time from infection to either death or release from hospital is 22-24 days. Anyone who tested ‘positive’ more than 24 days before today cannot be considered a case. They have either recovered or are now dead.
Let’s be kind and measure the Government figures from July 1st 2020. They are as I expected, a complete mess. Before 1st April (17,007 tests) we don’t know where they were taken. The total test numbers do not agree with each other. They are all over the place. A note excusing the mess reads:
As of 8 July, (iv) includes numbers of home tests and other tests through the social care portal that were not previously available from the UK Government (UKG) testing programme.
The increase in the cumulative figures in (iv) on 8 July is due to the addition of the backlog of care home portal tests and home tests to the database. It is not possible to incorporate these in the previous daily figures.
However, we have some numbers we can work with from 1st July
- 987 people have tested positive.
- There have been 435,617 tests. (179,933 through NHS labs, 261,684 through UK Gov Tests)
The number tested is, without doubt, a biased sample. We don’t know who was tested, where or by whom. But it amounts to 8% of the total 5.5 million population of Scotland.
The worst case scenario is that 987 people in the country may have been infected by SC2.
That is 0.22% of people tested have shown as ‘positive’. This is the prevalence of SC2 in Scotland.
This is the number that Sturgeon relies on to continue the “war against the virus”.
Click on the link for the rest.