- 1 Summary
- 2 Introduction
- 3 Mirzayanov’s story from 1991 to 1995
- 4 The official Russian position
- 5 Uglev’s story: corroboration or rebuttal?
- 6 Fake corroboration: the 2003 Amazon book review
- 7 US studies of the phosphylated amidine compounds identified as Novichoks
- 8 Mirzayanov’s role as a Tatar separatist in 2008-09
- 9 Cases of poisoning with A-234
- 10 Chemical and toxicological properties of A-234 and other A-series compounds
- 11 Discussion
- 12 Acknowledgements
- 13 Conflicts of interest
1 Summary
The poisoning incidents in Salisbury, England in 2018 with an unusual organophosphate compound designated A-234 gave rise to wide coverage of the story that a novel class of nerve agents named “Novichoks” had been discovered in the Soviet Union in the 1980s and that development of these agents as weapons had continued in Russia in violation of bilateral agreements with the US signed in 1989 and 1990. This story, originating with the dissident Russian chemist Vil Mirzayanov, has been accepted by many scientists and officials involved with chemical arms control. Russian officials however have denied that any studies under the name “Novichok” were ever conducted in the USSR or the Russian Federation. Official Russian statements have been supplemented with an unofficial explanation that the Novichoks story originated as a Russian counter-intelligence operation (“canary trap”) to identify Mirzayanov as a leaker, and that he was used (unwittingly) to channel disinformation after he had been identified. This article examines evidence in the public domain that is relevant to evaluating which of these two alternative explanations – chemical weapons programme or canary trap – is correct, based on primary sources.
Mirzayanov reported in 1992 that a new class of binary nerve agents named “Novichoks” had been developed during the 1980s at the GosNIIOKhT laboratories in Moscow, that field tests had shown one of these binary nerve agents to be several times more more effective than VX, and that three of these binary agents had been stockpiled in quantities of several tons from 1989 onwards. To assist Mirzayanov in preparing his defence against prosecution during 1993, he was provided with what were purportedly top secret documents confirming this story, before charges were dropped in 1994.
The only other account from a chemist inside the Soviet chemical weapons programme was provided by Vladimir Uglev, who stated that the compounds alleged to have been developed in binary form as Novichoks during the 1980s had been synthesized in unitary form in the 1970s in quantities of no more than a few kilogrammes, and that no binary formulations had ever been developed. Other information in the public domain rebuts or casts doubt on other key points in Mirzayanov’s story: that these compounds had structures similar to those published in the open Soviet literature as possible pesticides, that their precursors were widely available industrial chemicals, and that standard therapies for nerve agent poisoning were not effective against them. Mirzayanov’s credibility as an independent whistleblower is undermined by his role in a US government-sponsored operation to encourage Tatar separatism, coinciding with the publication of his book in 2008 which gave structures for the compounds allegedly developed as fourth generation nerve agents into the early 1990s.
From information in the public domain it is possible to deduce that the US military knew the phosphylated amidine structures designated as A-232 and A-234 by early 1997 and that by 1998 they had synthesized these compounds, studied their toxicity in vivo, and reported the results publicly. The results of these studies were subsequently removed from public databases, and the toxicity studies remain classified. From in silico predictions and clinical histories it is possible to infer that the low volatility and slow percutaneous absorption of these compounds would have limited their usefulness as chemical weapons.
The evidence that is publicly available thus supports the explanation that the Novichoks story originated as a counter-intelligence operation rather than a real chemical weapons programme. If this was the case, the operation has backfired by creating a situation in which incidents in which these “fourth generation agents” are detected are blamed on Russia. The success of efforts to eliminate the stockpiling of chemical weapons, together with establishment of international mechanisms to detect and report on any use of such weapons, may have had the unintended consequence of facilitating operations that attribute the possession or use of chemical weapons to an adversary.
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